The Period from 2010 to 2020

Thermohaline Circulation Collapse

After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010,
disrupting the temperate climate of Europe, which is made possible by the warm
flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline
conveyor). Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and
causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and eastern North
America. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to be affected by fresh water coming
from melting glaciers, Greenland’s ice sheet, and perhaps most importantly increased
rainfall and runoff. Decades of high-latitude warming cause increased precipitation and bring additional fresh water to the salty, dense water in the North, which is normally affected mainly by warmer and saltier water from the Gulf Stream. That
massive current of warm water no longer reaches far into the North Atlantic. The
immediate climatic effect is cooler temperatures in Europe and throughout much of
the Northern Hemisphere and a dramatic drop in rainfall in many key agricultural
and populated areas. However, the effects of the collapse will be felt in fits and starts,
as the traditional weather patterns re-emerge only to be disrupted again—for a full
decade.
The dramatic slowing of the thermohaline circulation is anticipated by some ocean
researchers, but the United States is not sufficiently prepared for its effects, timing, or
intensity. Computer models of the climate and ocean systems, though improved,
were unable to produce sufficiently consistent and accurate information for
policymakers. As weather patterns shift in the years following the collapse, it is not
clear what type of weather future years will bring. While some forecasters believe the
cooling and dryness is about to end, others predict a new ice age or a global drought,
leaving policy makers and the public highly uncertain about the future climate and
what to do, if anything.
Is this merely a “blip” of little importance or a fundamental
change in the Earth’s climate, requiring an urgent massive human response?

The Weather Report: 2010-2020

Each of the years from 2010-2020 sees average temperature drops throughout
Northern Europe, leading to as much as a 6 degree Fahrenheit drop in ten years.
Average annual rainfall in this region decreases by nearly 30%; and winds are up to
15% stronger on average. The climatic conditions are more severe in the continental
interior regions of northern Asia and North America.

The effects of the drought are more devastating than the unpleasantness of
temperature decreases in the agricultural and populated areas. With the persistent
reduction of precipitation in these areas, lakes dry-up, river flow decreases, and fresh
water supply is squeezed, overwhelming available conservation options and
depleting fresh water reserves. The Mega-droughts begin in key regions in Southern
China and Northern Europe around 2010 and last throughout the full decade. At the
same time, areas that were relatively dry over the past few decades receive persistent
years of torrential rainfall, flooding rivers, and regions that traditionally relied on
dryland agriculture.
In the North Atlantic region and across northern Asia, cooling is most pronounced in
the heart of winter -- December, January, and February -- although its effects linger
through the seasons, the cooling becomes increasingly intense and less predictable.
As snow accumulates in mountain regions, the cooling spreads to summertime. In
addition to cooling and summertime dryness, wind pattern velocity strengthens as
the atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal.
While weather patterns are disrupted during the onset of the climatic change around
the globe, the effects are far more pronounced in Northern Europe for the first five
years after the thermohaline circulation collapse. By the second half of this decade,
the chill and harsher conditions spread deeper into Southern Europe, North America,
and beyond. Northern Europe cools as a pattern of colder weather lengthens the
time that sea ice is present over the northern North Atlantic Ocean, creating a further
cooling influence and extending the period of wintertime surface air temperatures.
Winds pick up as the atmosphere tries to deal with the stronger pole-to-equator
temperature gradient. Cold air blowing across the European continent causes
especially harsh conditions for agriculture. The combination of wind and dryness
causes widespread dust storms and soil loss.
Signs of incremental warming appear in the southern most areas along the Atlantic
Ocean, but the dryness doesn’t let up. By the end of the decade, Europe’s climate is
more like Siberia’s.

>> Alternative Scenario for the Southern Hemisphere