Our future... An alternative scenario
Extrait for the globalwarming awareness2007 site :
There is considerable uncertainty about the climate dynamics of the Southern
Hemisphere, mainly due to less paleoclimatic data being available than for the
Northern Hemisphere. Weather patterns in key regions in the Southern Hemisphere
could mimic those of the Northern Hemisphere, becoming colder, drier, and more
severe as heat flows from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, trying to
thermodynamically balance the climatic system. Alternatively, the cooling of the
Northern Hemisphere may lead to increased warmth, precipitation, and storms in
the south, as the heat normally transported away from equatorial regions by the
ocean currents becomes trapped and as greenhouse gas warming continues to accelerate. Either way, it is not implausible that abrupt climate change will bring extreme weather conditions to many of the world’s key population and growing
regions at the same time – stressing global food, water, and energy supply Europe. Hit hardest by the climatic change, average annual temperatures drop by 6 degrees Fahrenheit in under a decade, with more dramatic shifts along the
Northwest coast. The climate in northwestern Europe is colder, drier, and windier,
making it more like Siberia. Southern Europe experiences less of a change but still
suffers from sharp intermittent cooling and rapid temperature shifts. Reduced
precipitation causes soil loss to become a problem throughout Europe, contributing
to food supply shortages. Europe struggles to stem emigration out of Scandinavian
and northern European nations in search of warmth as well as immigration from
hard-hit countries in Africa and elsewhere.
United States. Colder, windier, and drier weather makes growing seasons shorter
and less productive throughout the northeastern United States, and longer and drier
in the southwest. Desert areas face increasing windstorms, while agricultural areas
suffer from soil loss due to higher wind speeds and reduced soil moisture. The
change toward a drier climate is especially pronounced in the southern states.
Coastal areas that were at risk during the warming period remain at risk, as rising
ocean levels continues along the shores. The United States turns inward, committing
its resources to feeding its own population, shoring-up its borders, and managing the
increasing global tension.
China. China, with its high need for food supply given its vast population, is hit hard
by a decreased reliability of the monsoon rains. Occasional monsoons during the
summer season are welcomed for their precipitation, but have devastating effects as
they flood generally denuded land. Longer, colder winters and hotter summers
caused by decreased evaporative cooling because of reduced precipitation stress
already tight energy and water supplies. Widespread famine causes chaos and
internal struggles as a cold and hungry China peers jealously across the Russian and
western borders at energy resources.
Bangladesh. Persistent typhoons and a higher sea level create storm surges that
cause significant coastal erosion, making much of Bangladesh nearly uninhabitable.
Further, the rising sea level contaminates fresh water supplies inland, creating a
drinking water and humanitarian crisis. Massive emigration occurs, causing tension
in China and India, which are struggling to manage the crisis inside their own
boundaries.
East Africa. Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique face slightly warmer weather, but
are challenged by persistent drought. Accustomed to dry conditions, these countries
were the least influenced by the changing weather conditions, but their food supply
is challenged as major grain producing regions suffer.
Australia. A major food exporter, Australia struggles to supply food around the
globe, as its agriculture is not severely impacted by more subtle changes in its
climate. But the large uncertainties about Southern Hemisphere climate change make
this benign conclusion suspect.