BLack gold
The black gold of tomorrow, it is not any more oil but coal for globalwarming awareness2007. This return in grace sounds like a revenge for the coal, forsaken in second half of the XXe century to the profit of oil. With other rising energy that is the gas, it will play an essential part. In fact thus fossil energies will ensure our future and should represent 85 % of the world demand for 2050, according to the trend scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Review of detail. Oil. The third oil crisis that the world knows since 2005, less brutal than those of 1973 and 1980, pushed with analysis hasty on the "end of oil". The chairman of the national company Saudi Aramco, Abdallah S. Jum' ah, is not this opinion "the world consumed only 18 % of his oil potential", says it, that is to say 1 000 billion barrels on total reserves of 5 700 billion consisted the conventional crude already discovered and extractable (1 200 billion), bituminous sands of Canada and heavy oils of Venezuela (1 500 billion), the improvement of the rates of recovery of oil (1 000 billion) and the discoveries to come (1 000 billion). Sufficient reserves, in its eyes, to ensure "more than one hundred forty years of consumption the current rate/rhythm" and "to discredit" the arguments of those which announce a nearest decline of the production (the famous peak oil). These estimates "should not exempt to us of a reflexion on the energy transition", warns the president of the French Petroleum Institute, Olivier Appert. These data are vigorously disputed, in particular by the former oil geologists of Aspo (Association for the Study of the Peak Oil & Gas), who envisage a decrease of the production of crude during the next decade. The figures of production "are handled" and those of the "very political" reserves, summarizes Jean Laherrère, technical ex-director of the exploration of Total and member of the ASPO.The technical data concern, they, of the secrecy of State (except in the United States, in Great Britain and Norway), supplements it. What is certain, it is that the reserves become exhausted. In spite of layers as promising as those recently put at the day in the Gulf of Mexico, the proven reserves do not increase any more as of 1 % per annum (against 4,5 % during the decade 1980) and the barrels discovered since 1999 compensate for only 45 % of those which were consumed over this period. The gas. It is under development full. Its consumption should increase by 138 % from here at 2050, the biggest part to feed from the power stations, according to AIE.Longtempsscindéen gone regional (Asia, Europe, North America) because of the constraints of transport by gas pipelines, it mondialise thanks to the enormous projects of natural gas liquified (GNL) in Russia, in Qatar and in Iran (60 % of the world reserves). In 2030, more moitiéducommercegazier will be done in the form of GNL. But contrary to coal, the gas is concentrated in countries at the height "energy nationalism" (Venezuela, Russia, Bolivia...). Coal. There remains the "king coal" (King Coal) in the world, in spite of emissions deCO2 twice more important than cellesdu gas. Between 1970 and 2004, the request progressed of 110 %(49 %pour oil). If nothing is done, it will triple from here at 2050, according to the IEA. And its reserves are colossal: LP regard at 910 billion tons, which promises 155 years of production-against approximately 45 years for oil and 60 years for gas, always according to LP - at the current rate/rhythm. Another asset, coal is everywhere, whereas a share croissantedupétrole etdugaz is produitedans politically unstable areas "While cutting gas in the Ukraine and thus in Europe, Putin made an unhoped-for publicity with coal", notes an industrialist of the sector. It is less expensive to extract and 83 % of its production are consumed in the country of extraction. As for the risk of pollution during its maritime transport, it is null. More than 40 % of world electricity is produced starting from coal (20 % starting from gas, and 16 % of the nuclear power). "After the gas peak of years 1990 in the United States, coal finds the central place which it had in the energy matrix", is pleased Philippe Joubert, chairman of Alstom Power. World leader of the turbines for power stations with coal, it garners the orders today, in particular in Asia "In Europe, it is also a fuel which will develop, inter alia because of the price of gas", increases the former president of Charbonnages de France, Philippe de Ladoucette, today president of the Commission of regulation of energy (CRE).
To be profitable and proper Acondition to be profitable. Uneincertitude weighs indeed on its advantage compétififdans the casoùle prixdes permisd' emission deCO2 would strongly weigh down its cost. And with the proviso of becoming clean. Because of all fossile fuels, it is most harmful for health (accidents of mine, silicosis, diseases pulmonary). However two thirds of the 1 400 GW of electric capacities containing coal will be installed, from here at 2030, in the developing countries - whose power stations emit 20 %deCO2 moreover than the power stations of the OECD countries "European industry can take the technological leadership in the capture and duCO2 storage", indiqueunrécent report/ratio of the interdepartmental delegation to the durable development given to the Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin "It will be necessary to examine under which conditions of transferring this know-how to the poorest countries", recently noted John Browne, chairman of LP. Or else, it, "they prevented will be condemned to meet their energy requirements while resorting to old dirty technologies".
Traduction via Babelfish from Jean-Michel Bezat article for french newspaper Le Monde.